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surfAvatar Surf

Sticking with a plan...

5/10 NL, 6handed - 1k effective stacks.

Surf raises QQ to $35, 2 folds, button (30/15) calls, sb (29/12) calls, BB folds.

Flop:9 6 9 ($115.00)

Surf checks,

At this point my hand is in good shape against my opponents' pf ranges, however, betting can lead to sticky situations against these aggressive players. They are both capable of semibluffing draws, and making the occasional pure bluff, along with getting value out of 9x and 55. Betting creates a situation where I may induce more action than my hand can handle, given my image and my opponents.

Furthermore the button has shown in the past that he's happy to fire at flops where it looks like he can steal the pot, and I've been waiting for a spot to bluff induce. This is a good board for it since A and K are the only overcards, and my opponents will often share outs since AK is very unlikely since most reraise it preflop in this game. I will bet this spot sometimes but I had been checking and folding often since I have not been making hands in multiway pots, and this gives me a chance to balance a bit.

button bets $85, SB calls $85, Surf calls $85.

I'll need to keep an eye on the SB but I'm pretty confident in my hand still.

Turn: [9 6 9 ] 3 ( $370.00 )

SB checks, Surf checks, button checks.

Looks like button is giving up on his bluff, or perhaps he actually has a draw and is taking a free card. SB looks like a slowplayed 9 or a PP.

River: [9 6 9 3] A

SB checks, Surf checks, button bets $250, SB folds, Surf calls.

Okay so SB didn't have a 9, and the button's range is still anything that calls pf and wants to stab the flop. IMHO he doesn't bet a bare A that hard, and while he could have made a flush the range of hands he could hold that have not improved absolutely dwarf the few suited diamond hands, given his looseness pf and the fact that he'd fire nearly anything when checked to on the flop.

This is a somewhat high-variance play, because I give multiple cheap cards to 2 opponents, and because I certainly get valuetowned by flushes occasionally. However it can be greatly +EV since this opponent is known to bluff when he senses weakness - though once I've decided on this course of action I have to follow through and make a somewhat uncomfortable river call.

Fortunately for us villain has KT. Quite a succesful bluff-induction, given that we got 2 streets of betting out of a hand drawing to 3 outs!

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